Die Hard Sports Fan

Here at the Bills Blog we are very capable of changing things up.  This week I’m calling an audible and going to give you my NFL picks for Week 3 against the point spread.  This is going to be a weekly post that will happen every Thursday from now on (remember every Tuesday is also the Bills Player Bio of the Week).  Why am I still talking?  Let’s start it up.

Oakland Raiders (1-1, +9.5) @ Buffalo Bills (2-0)

OVER/UNDER: 36.5 Points 

Oakland lost their top back in Justin Fargas to a hamstring injury so the workload will go between rookie Darren McFadden, and Michael Bush.  I think the Bills Defense is going to be able to stop the run with Marcus Stroud just terriozing the Raiders O-line.  If they can’t run the ball, then the pressure will be put on 2nd year QB JaMarcus Russel who has not looked very strong.  The guy only had 55 yards last week through the air against a weak Kansas City defense (he went 6 for 17 which is good for a 35.3% completion).  Not to mention that the defense has been terrible.  They have let up an average of 24.5 points per game and 315 yards.  The Bills offense should have a big day.  The only question is will the Bills blow them out?  This is a game they are suppose to win big and it is tough whether or not they will step on their throat and blow them out of this game. 

THE PICK: I have to go with the Bills in this one.

OVER/UNDER: I’ll go with the OVER.   

 

Arizona Cardinals (2-0) @ Washington Redskins (1-1, +3)

OVER/UNDER: 42.5

Kurt Warner looked the right choice after all after he has led the team to a 2-0 start to the season.  He looked great last week against the Dolphins (but who doesn’t).  The Redskins secondary hasn’t looked great, so expect Warner to have another strong game with Fitz and Boldin running the show.  Clinton Portis is going to have to led the Redskins in carrier and be their workhorse in this game.  Jason Campbell looked sharp last week, like he was suppose to look like this season.  I think the Redskins are still a pretty good team.  Look for a high scoring game.

THE PICK: I really do like the Redskins with the 3 point spread in this one.

O/U: It might be a pretty high scoring game but my gut tells me to go with the UNDER.

 

KANSAS CITY CHEIFS (0-2, +5.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-1)

O/U: 36.5

This game could be the possible stinker of the week.  Kansas City is terrible but the Falcons aren’t too much better.  Neither team has a QB (sorry Matt Ryan Fans) but both do have some running backs.  Look for the Falcons to win the running battle with Turner and Norwood.  Two awful teams going head to head. 

THE PICK: Turner will have a huge game.  Falcons are my pick.

O/U: These teams might not even get passed the 25 point mark.  I’m taking the UNDER.

 

HOUSTON TEXANS (0-1, +5) @ Tennessee Titans (2-0)

O/U: 39

This will be the Texans fist game in 2 weeks as they had a “bye week” last week due to the Hurricane.  The Texans looked terrible in their first game and I expected that to continue especailly because they don’t have a running back.  The Titans will have to not turn the ball over and stop the Texans in the air to win this one.  Should be a low scoring game.

THE PICK: I like the Texans with the +5 points.

O/U: Like I said, I think this one will be low scoring.  I’ll take the UNDER.

 

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (1-1, +3) @ CHICAGO BEARS (1-1)

O/U: 35.5

The biggest question with this line is how is the over/under 35.5?  Neither team will score much in this game.  Both teams have a decently strong running game but passing is the big question.  Kyle Orton is not going to put up big numbers and Devin Hester, the Bears top playmaker might not even play in this game.  He has missed three pratices in a row this week due to a rib injury.  How are they going to get into good field postion now?  Their offense certainly won’t be able to do it.  This game should be another stinker.

THE PICK:  No Hester equals No Win.  I’ll take the Bucs with the 3 points to spare.

O/U: Under for sure.

 

CINCINNATI BENGALS (0-2, +13.5) @ NEW YORK GIANTS

O/U: 41.5

Can the Giants cover the spread?  They certainly will beat the joke of the NFL in the Bengals but by almost 14 points?  Their offense will put up some big numbers over a very poor defense (don’t give me those numbers of where the D is ranked, they are terrible).  The X-Factor in this one is Carson Palmer.  He has looked terrible for the Bengals in their two losses.  I have a feeling he bounces back in this one.  And hey maybe Chad Johnson (no I will not refer to him by his stupid spanish name that translates to eight five, not eighty-five) might accuatly come out and play a game of football.

THE PICK: Palmer bounces back in this one and the Giants, who win, just can’t cover the spread.  I’ll go with the Bengals, although I proabably will regret it. 

O/U: Over.  This game will have a pretty high score at the end.

 

MIAMI DOLPHINS (0-2, +12.5) @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-0)

O/U: 36.5

The Dolphins will play this game close, until halftime where they will eventually be blown out by the Pats.  Miami’s defense will not be able to stop the run or pass, even without Tom Brady.  The national betting scene is all over the Dolphins but let’s be honest here.  The Pats have too much firepower for them to handle.  It won’t be a high scoring game but I wouldn’t be suprise if the Dolphins get shut out. 

THE PICK: Not following the national media on this one.  I’m going with the Patriots.

O/U: Neither team will score much.  UNDER.

 

CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-0, +3.5) @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (0-2)

O/U: 37.5

The Panthers are the underdogs in this one?  Watch Gus Frerotte be terrible this week and Tavaris Jackson wins back his spot.  The Panthers of course will have to stop AP and Chester Taylor on the ground.  That is no small task.  However they have won their first 2 games without their best player in Steve Smith.  Look for him to have a big game in this one.  I don’t usually go on trends but QB Jake Delhomme for the Panthers is 22-4 as an underdog in his career.  I expect that record to improve after this game.

THE PICK: Going with the Panthers on this one as everyone in Minnesota realizes their team is in deep trouble.

O/U: Steve Smith is back remember?  Going with the OVER on this one.

 

That covers all of the early games for Sunday.  Didn’t feel the need to bore all of you guys tonight.  Check the site tommarrow evening for the rest of the games.  Also remember, this post will be done on Thursdays from now on.

 

High Disagree with one of my picks?  Think I’m an idiot?  Want to praise me for picking your team?  Write a comment in below and tell me what’s up. 

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Quarterback

Last week, the Miami Dolphins entered the game with a plan to shut down the running game and make QB Kurt Warner beat them with the pass. Well, that might have worked in recent years. But, as of right now…not so much!

Warner destroyed the Dolphins. He threw for 361 yards, three touchdowns, and ZERO turnovers. Moreover, he finished the day with a PERFECT rating of 158.3. That, by the way, is the third time in his career that he has achieved a perfect rating. It’s been a while since we’ve seen this version of Warner. Personally, for this week, I’d prefer more of the Warner from the past few years. Unfortunately, I think we’re going to see the current Warner, which more closely resembles his glory years with the St. Louis Rams.

Speaking of his achievement against the Dolphins, Warner is quoted by the Associated Press, as such:

When you have one of those days when everything’s clicking and you feel like you can’t be stopped, it brings back a lot of memories of those great years…The game was slowing down. I was putting the ball where I wanted to put it, and it felt good.

At 37 years old, and being the veteran that he is, there is not much we can do to fool him. Rather, we need to be in his face, all day. And, when we get there, if he’s still holding on to the ball, which isn’t likely, we need to put him on his butt…hard! The only time that Warner hasn’t played well in the past is when he is being pressured, rushed, and hit. That’s how Tom Brady got his first NFL Super Bowl ring.

But, thus far this season, that hasn’t happened. In fact, the Dolphins used that defensive strategy and blitzed Warner from all different angles. They even knocked him down a number of times; sacked him twice. It didn’t work. So, clearly, either we need to do it better than the Dolphins. Or, we need a different strategy.

The Cardinals are 2-0 for the first time in 17 years. If they come in to our house and win on Sunday, it will be the first time enjoying a 3-0 record since 1974.

Greg Blache has his hands full this week in preparation for this matchup.

 

Running Backs

Edgerrin James rushed for 55 yards on 18 carries last week. Each yard was a hard fought victory. Still, it was enough to lift James to become only the 14th back in the history of the NFL to gain 15,000 yards from scrimmage. Without question, James is still a good, effective running back and has all the ability to hurt us if we ignore him. He shares time with Tim Hightower, a big, powerful back that has seen the end zone twice in as many games. Both of these guys can move the chains.

 

Receivers

Big. Strong. Fast. And, great hands. That’s all that really needs to be said about the Arizona Cardinals receivers. The combination of Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald has been too much for opposing defenses this year. Boldin had six catches for 140 yards. It was the 22nd time in his relatively short career that he’s had over 100 yards receiving in a game. He can play some ball. Fitzgerald, on the other side, is definitely no slouch either. Last week he caught six passes for 153 yards. It was his 14th time in his even shorter career that he has been over 100 yards in a game.

~ ~ ~

It is often said that defense is a state of mind…an attitude, if you will. For this weeks game, we need every ounce of attitude we can muster, and a heavy dose of execution. It would be too easy to look past these Cardinals and start thinking about the upcoming trips to the Dallas Cowboys and Phildelphia Eagles. But, that would be foolish.

These guys are coming to play. And, they believe that they can give us a spankin’. Well, they have the paddles to do it. But, our *attitude* needs to be that we’re going to bring some lead pipes to their paddle party.

Hail to the Redskins.

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ESPN talks to Amani Toomer about Tom Brady’s injury and as well as Giants football.

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It is being reported by multiple sports websites that New England Patriots QB Tom Brady is done for the year. He injuried his knee in todays game against the Kansas City Cheifs and sources have come out and said the injury is very serious. Brady will be sidelined for the year with a torn ACL. This is the Patriots worse nightmare. They will now be forced to go with Matt Cassel or find someone else. It is also being reported that free agent Chris Simms will work out for the team on Monday. As much as I hate to root for someone to get hurt, this opens up the entire AFC East. Brady is that team and really makes them pretty much unstoppable. This really opens up the divison to the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, who both won today. All of the defensive coaches that have to face the Pats are breathing a little easier after receving this news tonight. Now they can focus on containing Randy Moss and Wes Welker, and also stopping the Pats running game which is still no easy task.

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